The Underwood Stakes is our Group One feature this Saturday.
The Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) has started to become a very good Caulfield Cup kick off point.
Maybe that's being swayed by recency bias given Without A Fight was a slashing run in this race last year en route to the Cups double, but I think this year's edition, and the race's place in the calendar, is solidifying that theory.
Only one week after the Makybe Diva means most weight-for-age horses, likely on a Cox Plate path, aren't going to run, so we're left with the B graders up against the good Cups chances- perhaps weight-for-age horses, but typically not Cox Plate horses.
Last year Alligator Blood did back up off running second in the Makybe Diva to win this and I'm surprised a horse like Antino isn't doing that this year. Futures gone begging…
This year none back up from the Makybe Diva and instead the market is headed by thrice Group 1 bridesmaid Pericles, who is rock-solid, but not really a Group 1 horse.
He was far too good at Moonee Valley last time running to a Racing & Sports rating of 117. That equalled his peak having also run it when second in the Doncaster, Futurity and Golden Eagle.
I can see why he's favourite, and I think he probably is the most likely winner, but he's the horse nailed on to run his race which is almost certainly good enough for top three, but doesn't necessarily win.
The best horse on the R&S scale, narrowly, is Fawkner Park. He ran to 119 in his dominant Q22 win in Queensland, which was a decent spike for him having gone 113-109-109 previously.
It's nice and easy to compare him to Without A Fight who also won the Q22 the previous year. We had him running to 120, one pound better than Fawkner Park, and then resuming with a 116 in the Underwood, backed up by some booming late splits.
It's fair to assume Fawkner Park would also regress at least four pounds and I tend to think even a bit more, which doesn't have him winning this.
The other big Caulfield Cup hope is Place Du Carrousel, and she is interesting because she has fresh form and ratings.
She's rated to a peak of 118, one pound higher than Pericles, but has run that rating five times, once in Australia when fresh in the Ranvet behind Via Sistina.
Whether she's as wound up here remains to be seen but she's trialled up very nicely and I daresay we haven't yet seen the best of her. Her SP profile in some top races in France is excellent and hints that she's a 120+ horse in the making.
She maps for a good run, likely just forward of midfield, and I think is the horse with the best set up to beat Pericles.