Chris Scholtz is relying on Caulfield Cup form as the source of this year's Melbourne Cup winner.

This is one heck of a year for assessing Melbourne Cup form. It is never easy to find the Melbourne Cup winner but in my racing media career spanning more than 50 years I cannot recall a more mind numbing year than 2025.

Since my media career started with Sydney's Daily Telegraph in 1971 I have been one of the many racing media pundits who annually place reputations on the line for the bemusement of the general public in the belief that we can claim 15 seconds of fame by selecting the winner of one of the toughest thoroughbred contests in the world.

Over the years – through a variety of notable racing publications, racing radio and ground breaking racing websites – my selections have brought moments of profitable Melbourne Cup joy, although I confess the defeats far outweigh the victories.

That's the Melbourne Cup, which in its current day form as an international attraction is a far cry from the colonial handicap race that besotted the Australian public through a golden era last century.

After delving into this year's field brought together from far and wide I have conceded defeat, dispensing the international form guide to the too hard basket.

For an almost endless list of reasons I have resolved to go back to basics, relying on the Caulfield Cup to be the best guide to the Melbourne Cup and let weights and measures do the rest.

Why is this Melbourne Cup almost unfathomable? Well here's just a couple of obvious brain blockers….

* There are 10 runners from overseas stables; 6 of the 10 have never raced in Australia and those six have not raced for periods of between 52 and 94 days.

* The six new internationals last raced in Ireland, England, Japan and the USA over distances ranging from 2000m to 3319m.

* Of the 24 runners only five have won over the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200 metres.

* Only three of the 24 runners have won at Flemington.

* None of the 24 runners have placed over the Melbourne Cup course although nine have taken on the challenge a total of 11 times in previous editions.

* With the weather forecast pointing to an affected track there are eight runners without a win on soft and heavy ground.

* Of the 16 wet track winners 10 have won at least twice on soft/heavy.

* Six of the 24 runners have gear changes ranging from the addition of blinkers to different bits, concussion plates and cross over nose bands.

* Among the 10 internationals three trainers will be saddling their first Melbourne Cup runners – Hisashi Shimizu (Japan); Alessandro Botti (France) and Bill Mott (USA).

* Among the internationals Ireland's Joseph O'Brien has trained two previous Melbourne Cup winners. Previous overseas Melbourne Cup winners have been prepared by trainers from Ireland, England, France, Germany, Japan and New Zealand. The only successful local trainers with runners this year are Chris Waller, Gai Waterhouse and Ciaron Maher.

* Only one of the 24 runners was bred in Australia. The other 23 had their breeding origins in Ireland (8); France (7); GB (3); USA (2); NZ (2); and Japan (1).

* Northern Hemisphere-bred runners have their age rounded up when racing in Australia. UK-trained Melbourne Cup winners Rekindling (2017) and Cross Counter (2018) were Northern Hemisphere 3YOs at the time but raced here as 4YOs. Furthur is the only NH-bred 3YO in this year's field. Since 2010 five European-based 5YOs have won the Melbourne Cup racing here as 6YOs plus one 7YO (Twilight Payment in 2020) who raced here as an 8YO. Under Australian terms the Melbourne Cup has been won by 24 3YOs (the last in 1941); 45 4YOs; 46 5YOs; 34 6YOs; 12 7YOs; and 3 three 8YOs.

* Fillies and mares have won the Melbourne Cup only 17 times in its 164-year history including eight wins since 1988. Colts and entires have won 84 times and geldings 63. There are only two mares – European 6YOs but 7YOs to Australian time – in this year's field (Goodie Two Shoes/River Of Stars).

* There are five overseas jockeys with Melbourne Cup mounts in 2025 but only Joe Moreira and Wayne Lordan – both winless - have previously ridden in the race. Ethan Brown and Celine Gaudray are locals riding in the Melbourne Cup for the first time.

* At the other end of the scale Kerrin McEvoy (3 wins) and Craig Williams (1 win) have both ridden in the Melbourne Cup 22 times. Other Melbourne Cup winning jockeys with mounts this year are Mark Zahra (2 wins), Blake Shinn, James McDonald; Robbie Dolan and Jye McNeil.

* Celine Gaudray and Jamie Melham (Kah) – having her fifth Melbourne Cup ride - are hoping to join Michelle Payne as only the second female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup.

* Half Yours will attempt to become the 13th winner – and the third this century - of the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double.

* Barriers with long losing sequences include 2 (last win 1997); 6 (1965); 15 (1971); 20 (1988); 23 (1976); 24 (1973). However nothing beats saddlecloth number 20 for the longest losing jinx in Melbourne Cup history dating back to its last win 1897. Other long losing saddlecloth numbers include 18 (1932), 9 (1957) and 7 (1981).

* Since 2000 15 Melbourne Cup winners have carried between 51kg and 54.5kg. Only four have carried 56.5kg-58kg. The highest weights carried by Melbourne Cup winners since 1955 have been 60.5kg by Rain Lover (1969), 58.5kg by Think Big (1975) and 58kg by Makybe Diva in her third win in 2005.

SUMMARY

I could go on and on about the historical data, precedents and trivia that surround the Melbourne Cup, but needless to say it only adds to the confusion. Which brings me back to the Caulfield Cup and its worth in this perplexing year as the likely source of the Melbourne Cup winner.

Until the 1990s there was no better race form for a Melbourne Cup and while the internationalisation of Flemington's great race has had an impact the Caulfield Cup can still be relied on as an invaluable guide.

Since 2000 only three Melbourne Cup winners have not had a lead-up race in Australia (all in the last eight years). In those 25 years seven Caulfield Cup runners went on to win the Melbourne Cup, closely followed by six from the Cox Plate.

Notably all but one of the seven Caulfield Cup runners to win the Melbourne Cup since 2000 finished in the first four at Caulfield, the exception being last year's shock winner Knight's Choice (14th).

The other lead-up races producing Melbourne Cup winners since 2000 have been the Geelong Cup (3); Archer Stakes (2); Bart Cummings (1); Herbert Power (1); Irish St Leger (1); Mackinnon Stakes (1); Moonee Valley Cup (1); UK St Leger (1); UK Great Voltigeur Stakes (1)

On that basis alone it is obvious this year's Caulfield first four – HALF YOURS, RIVER OF STARS, VALIANT KING and PRESAGE NOCTURNE – must be given the highest priority in Melbourne Cup reckoning.

It wasn't a high rating edition of the Caulfield Cup but this is not a vintage year and with weight shifts and expected track conditions taken into account I'm happy to rely on that form to stand up on Tuesday.

(14) HALF YOURS – the biggest improver in the local staying ranks this year – has incurred a 2kg penalty off his Caulfield Cup win which sees runner-up (21) RIVER OF STARS and fourth placed (6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE meet him 2.5kg better with the third horse (24) VALIANT KING 1.5kg better off.

The imported mare RIVER OF STARS appeals as an ideal Melbourne Cup horse, finishing third in the Sydney Cup (3200m) in April in her first short prep for Chris Waller and coming to the fore at Caulfield when beaten less than a length in her first spring start over 2400m.

She was a Listed and G3 winner of four races up to 2900m in the UK supported by four placings at G1 and G2 level from 2400m to 3300m, a profile that indicates she can make further progress under the astute training of Waller.

Her imported stablemate VALIANT KING has been the revelation of the spring, finding lengths on his previous poor Australian form to win the Bart Cummings over 2520m at Flemington before surging home from the rear for his close third in the Caulfield Cup.

In both races he has unleashed fast closing sectionals, the key being the addition of blinkers to his gear. With the limit weight of 51kg he is clearly the horse that has beaten the handicapper in this year's field.

The French stayer PRESAGE NOCTURNE also produced a sterling Melbourne Cup trial with his strong fourth in the Caulfield Cup, an effort that substantiated the view that he will be much better placed over 3200m on the bigger Flemington track.

He is a five time winner up to 3000m in Europe with excellent Group form that ties in with past efforts against RIVER OF STARS.

At the top of the field Joseph O'Brien's crack stayer (1) AL RIFFA and local weight-for-age star (2) BUCKAROO are clearly the class runners deserving of their challenging weights.

Ratings suggest AL RIFFA, winner of the G2 Curragh Cup and G1 Irish St Leger at his last two starts in July and September, could easily beat this field – but Melbourne Cup history is a huge hurdle and the records say he faces a testing challenge to win his first Australian start under 59kg.

BUCKAROO, coming off the closest of seconds to champion mare Via SIstina in the WS Cox Plate (2040m), adds to the Chris Waller arsenal with form lines that mirror the path the trainer took to his first Melbourne Cup victory with his mare Verry Elleegant in 2021.

BUCKAROO has risen to a new ratings peak this spring and while he is carrying 2.5kg more weight than last year, when he finished ninth after a tough run, he must perform well if he holds his Cox Plate form.

That rounds out my top six. With the prospect of soft track conditions I will include (15) MORE FELONS, (19) ATHABASCAN, (22) ROYAL SUPREMACY and (23) TORRANZINO in extended exotics.

MELBOURNE CUP SELECTIONS

(21) RIVER OF STARS; (24) VALIANT KING; (6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE; (14) HALF YOURS; (1) AL RIFFA; (2) BUCKAROO

For the exotics – (15) MORE FELONS; (19) ATHABASCAN; (22) ROYAL SUPREMACY; (23) TORRANZINO