Ellerslie Race 1
6 Let Fly
Given the $55K stake on offer, this is a very moderate R65 contest. I've sided with Let Fly, who isn't running up to her best form of late, however, she should be hitting peak fitness now and they've tinkered with her gear since last start. She has the benefit of having raced on the new Ellerslie track earlier this year, where she put up figures that would win this race 9 times out of 10. While Perfectmanz looks the horse to beat, Let Fly is the right price to be having a spec at odds.

Ellerslie Race 2
2 Nereus
Nereus has been the subject of very strong backing in each of his two runs back from a spell. Now 3rd up, stepping up in trip and drawn one in a small field, he looks very hard to beat. He's nominated for some very good races down the track, he'd need to be handling this field to consider some loftier targets. I will also be having a small saver on Nest Egg at odds, who will be much better suited on a firmer track, up in trip and Warren Kennedy riding.

Ellerslie Race 3
1 Cyber Patch
Cyber Patch has been good in both runs since returning from Hong Kong, running 2nd on each occasion. From the wide draw (14), I'd expect they'll push forward with him again and look to try and lead this field. The firmer track should suit and being closer to the speed and rail could be advantageous for this first meeting back at Ellerslie.

Ellerslie Race 4
11 Customized
Customized won his first start in New Zealand well enough to suggest he could go on with it in a R65 of this strength. While his first-up win at Ruakaka rated just okay, he was having his first run in New Zealand and will have taken stacks of improvement from that effort. Expect him to push forward and remain handy throughout. Looks the one they have to beat.

Ellerslie Race 5
8 Merchant Queen
Tip of The Day
Merchant Queen was a massive effort in defeat at Hastings last start. She ran the 3rd fastest first 400m split of the day (only behind Crocetti and Bonny Lass) despite being moderately away and crowded between runners shortly after the gates opened. She has performed extremely well at Ellerslie in the past and she's drawn to go well again. I expect her to lead and take all sorts of running down.

Ellerslie Race 6
10 Investigate
Investigate worked hard first-up under the big weight at Hastings and faded accordingly in the straight. I'm hoping they'll ride him with cover this time around, given he's drawn wide (14) and there looks to be an abundance of early speed drawn underneath of him. If he can find a back to follow and blend into the race at the right time, he looks well over the odds at the $15 quote at publish.

Ellerslie Race 7
6 Rudyard
Rudyard has trialled up well enough for this resuming run, where he looks well placed to run a race first-up. From the inside draw he maps to get a perfect trailing run sitting behind likely leader, Wessex. He has shown in the past that a strongly run 1400m is his suitable for him, having produced figures that would be competitive with that setup here. While betting against Orchestral is a scary proposition, a 1×3 each way play on Rudyard is the better play for mine.

Ellerslie Race 8
2 Cast Of Diamonds
Cast Of Diamonds was a pass mark in his resuming run at Hastings, where he did some early work and was inclined to race keenly after being crossed. He maps to settle handy to the speed with cover from the low gate (5), where he looks to get a nice trailing run off an even tempo. He looks the one to beat to close proceedings at Ellerslie.