Ellerslie Race 1
7 High Country
OpenRace time: 07:07 pm, 25 Oct 2024
This is a very even lineup of stayers where I've sided with High Country, who looks to map well and should be hitting peak fitness 4th up this preparation. He has been good without setting the world on fire this time in and he now looks to get a very good opportunity to find winning form. Expect to see him roll forward early and either lead or tag the leaders throughout in what looks a moderately run race.
Ellerslie Race 2
7 Jaarffi
Jaarffi went massive first-up after racing very keenly through the early stages in a race that didn't suit those in the back half of the field. Now 2nd up and back on a firmer surface should see Jaarffi very hard to beat. With even luck in running and some tempo in the race I think she will be winning this. Happy to take the $3.50 at publish, I wouldn't be surprised to see her start much much shorter.
Ellerslie Race 3
2 Moet Down
Moet Down has trialled well enough for her resuming run here, where she maps to get a great trailing run behind the likes of Aquilifer, Mafia Mamma and Amazonia who will all be handlebars down in the early stages. If she performs up to her better runs as a 3yo then I expect her to take all sorts of beating in this.
Ellerslie Race 4
8 Belle Du Monde
8 Belle Du Monde: I thought the early price around Belle Du Monde was well over the odds given she's drawn the inside and showed very good early speed in her sole trial. She gets the services of Craig Grylls for her debut run and while Return To Conquer beat her home in their trial, Belle Du Monde arguably looked less suited by the Heavy conditions that day. Happy to be with the Te Akau filly at the odds.
Ellerslie Race 5
10 Clew Bay
Clew Bay ran well on debut at Te Rapa where she finished a close up 4th despite getting on one rein for the majority of the straight. From the wide draw (11) here, I wouldn't be surprised to see them roll forward given how sharply she jumped on debut before being eased into a midfield position. If she gets some luck from the wide drew, she can go close in this.
Ellerslie Race 6
6 McGrath
McGrath was enormous first-up where he lost ground passing the 800m when putting in an awkward stride before surging home late and was strong through the line. He's now 2nd up, stepping up to the mile and getting 2kg weight relief from Ace Lawson Carroll's claim. He looks to have a lot in his favour to suggest a bold run can be expected here.
Ellerslie Race 7
1 Alabama Lass
High class filly who has been breathtaking in her short career to date, having only been defeated once at the hands of another high class filly in Captured By Love. I expect to see her build up the revs from the wide gate and cross this field. If she finds the front and Sam Spratt can dictate terms then the 1400m is not a concern at all for mine.
Ellerslie Race 8
10 Terra Mitica
10 Terra Mitica: I was with Terra Mitica first-up this campaign and she went okay without flattering before running well below par at Tauranga on a Heavy track. While the draw (14) isn't flash on paper, she was likely to get back in this field anyway and there also looks to be a very strong speed engaged with the likes of Wessex, Sagunto and Shamus all iikely to push forward early. The firmer track here and Warren Kennedy jumping aboard are huge ticks for mine and I won't be watching her go around at $21/$5.50 in this.
Ellerslie Race 9
1 Acquarello
Acquarello was impressive when winning running away from her opposition at Matamata last start on the postponed Arrowfield Stud Plate Day. She maps to get back from gate (10), which isn't a negative here given the likely strong tempo this race will be run at. Repeat of her last start win would take her very close in this.
