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Ellerslie Picks - Friday, 6 December

Bellatrix Black defeats Mustang Valley in the Gr.3 McKee Family Sunline Vase (2100m) at Ellerslie
Bellatrix Black defeats Mustang Valley in the Gr.3 McKee Family Sunline Vase (2100m) at Ellerslie Picture: Trish Dunell

Ellerslie Race 1
2 Terra Mitica

Terra Mitica has been rather disappointing this campaign (outside of her 3rd placing in the Balmerino Stakes two starts back). While I have been with her a few times this time in, she does look to get a good setup again her where she'll get back in this small field off what should be a genuine tempo being set by My Maebelline Girl. If she can find anything close to her best from there, she would probably just win this, whether she shows up is the concern. Happy to give her one more chance in this.

Ellerslie Race 2
1 Steely Man

Steely Man has been performing very consistently to start his career without winning. His last start effort at this course/distance was probably good enough to be winning this race with a repeat effort, however, he now jumps from a much more favourable gate this time.

Ellerslie Race 3
2 Jolted

Jolted was well below her best last start at Pukekohe, with no excuses found for the performance post-race. If you can forgive and forget that last start blip, her prior form would have her a clear favourite in this field for mine. Trusting the Kelso's to get her back to her best for this, should be hard to beat if she is.

Ellerslie Race 4
4 Irish Legacy

Irish Legacy kicked off her career in fine fashion before her form tapered away at the end of her first preparation. She has trialled well for this resuming run and looks to have the most upside in this field. Expecting a very bold performance if she can run up to her first couple of starts.

Ellerslie Race 5
2 Crocetti

Crocetti was just fair first-up at Pukekohe after a very moderate getaway saw him land further back than many may have anticipated. If he can jump cleaner here, he should secure the trail behind Babylon Berlin, which should see him given every chance to bounce back in this.

Ellerslie Race 6
8 Sethito

Sethito got on to a firmer track at Rotorua last start and blew her rivals away with an impressive front-running display. While this is a significant step up, I thought she could roll forward and look to do the same here.

Ellerslie Race 7
8 Francee

Francee comes into this race third-up off the back of a nice run for 2nd behind Twain last start (who has now won again since). She will likely get back of midfield from the middle draw (6) and could possibly be taggin To Catch a Thief in the run. As long as they don't go a less than even tempo in front, Francee should be storming late.

Ellerslie Race 8
12 Queen Zou

Queen Zou looks a great each way chance to finish the card at Ellerslie, coming into this race off a fast finishing 2nd at Pukekohe last start. She'll likely get back again in this, however, there looks to be plenty of on-speed runners engaged here, which should aid her in running on at the business end.

 


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