How did the Flemington and Rosehill winners rate historically?
Mr Brightside – Makybe Diva Stakes
It didn't take data or knowledge of times to work out that they went no gallop in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
That fact was evident as soon as 3200m stayer and rank outsider Mark Twain was sitting 2nd in run, the early pace slow even for him.
When converted to the Timeform scale of pounds, Mr Brightside won the race in a time figure of 68, effectively meaning a horse rated 68 could've run the same overall time if ridden efficiently.
For further context, a recent winner rated 68 is Indefinite – who won a benchmark 55 at Townsville on Tuesday. That's how slow they went.
Now clearly Indefinite would've been gapped at Flemington because that's not how races unfold, and all of the Makybe Diva runners could've gone much faster early if needed, and that's why using times and benchmarks can be fraught with danger.
They were all finishing very fast, Mr Brightside's finishing speed percentage at 113.6% actually more efficient than the Archer Stakes won by Revelare who was finishing at 115% at the end of 2500m.
Once adjusted for that finishing speed, the time figure comes out to a far more respectable 111.
At the end of the day however, Mr Brightside has beaten the 120 rated Aeliana by 1.5 lengths and the 132 rated Via Sistina by 1.9 lengths, and while it may not be the truest piece of form, it's hard to take too much away from the winner.
A third Makybe Diva makes Mr Brightside the fifth horse (first male) to win the same Group One thrice at Flemington and he's run to a Racing And Sports rating of 124, the same rating he ran beating Alligator Blood in 2023 and one pound below his 125 (peak) rating last year.
We didn't really learn anything about these horses we didn't know already here, but I still have the sneaking suspicion Antino is going as well as ever and can explode getting to a truer test.
Two of the key Coolmore Stud Stakes trials were held with vastly different race shapes won by talented three-year-olds and again, the times need to be taken into context with the rating.
Legacy Bound has run to a RAS rating of 112 to win the Poseidon Stakes, up from a peak of 110 in Adelaide before a spell, however the adjusted time figure of 96 is well below My Gladiola's of 103.
Legacy Bound, with a higher previous peak and having beaten better horses, ends up with a better rating of 112 compared to My Gladiola at 108, but both have gone well.
Having won the same race in Adelaide, Legacy Bound has drawn comparisons to Legacy Bound and Mark Zahra also echoed that sentiment. Growing Empire had run 111 in Adelaide, returning in the Mcneil at 114 and then going 116 in the Poseidon.
Legacy Bound is still a bit behind that but is less exposed and a faster tempo at 1200m should really suit his high cruising speed.
His 112 rating is only bettered by Growing Empire in this race, notably out-rating September Run who went 108 here.
While I'd have loved him to look at a Guineas this time in, they'll keep him sprinting and a high-pressure Coolmore will suit him down to the ground.
My Gladiola at 108 is the equal-third highest Cap D'antibes rating in recent times behind Petits Filous (112) in 2015 and September Run (111) in 2020, tying with Smart Melody and Bellatrix Star, the latter of whom went on to place in the Coolmore.
Rosehill – Ming Dynasty
Plenty of post-race discussion around Autumn Boy and his run, which was good giving the field weight but ultimately falling short to Sixties who led throughout.
Autumn Boy has basically run up to his win in Queensland prior at 106 but I'd be giving that a bonus due to the weight and there's no doubt he'll be improving over more ground.
Favourite for the Caulfield Guineas? Possibly fair enough with his profile and what Nepotism did in the Run To The Rose (more on that shortly), and a lack of opposition that seem to be putting their hand up.
Tempted – Run To The Rose
The filly announced herself as arguably the best of her generation having hinted at that as a two-year-old, unlucky in the Golden Slipper and then beating the Slipper winner Marhoona fair and square next time out.
Off just one trial here she blew her opposition away, running to a new peak rating of 118 (up from 114) in the process, backed up by a strong time figure which was only bettered by Autumn Glow on the card (more on that shortly).
She becomes just the second filly to win the Run To The Rose after a fellow Godolphin prospect In Secret did so in 2022.
In Secret ran to 116, matching that rating when second to Jacquinot in the Golden Rose before dominating the Coolmore and running 120.
Compared to some of the boys to have won the Run To The Rose however, 118 looks on the weaker side.
Bivouac holds the call at a whopping 127 on the RAS scale while Exosphere ran 125 in 2015. We've also seen Pierro (123), Rothfire (121), Menari (120) and Traffic Warden (117) in recent years.
I can't see 1400m of the Golden Rose being an issue off this win and being by Street Boss, it should be fine. I'd be expecting Tempted goes to the Golden Rose, gets a slot in The Everest and then heads to the Coolmore, the latter of which she's now a deserved favourite for.
Autumn Glow – Theo Marks Stakes
Arguably the most exciting horse in the country, Autumn Glow kept her unbeaten record intact with a dominant victory in the Theo Marks Stakes.
A solid rating of 114 first up, she's run a huge new peak at Racing And Sports here, hitting a mark of 122, once again backed up by a fast time figure and fast late splits.
When you run fast overall time and fast late splits, you're usually pretty good and a rating of 122 now confirms her as one of the top horses in the country, seemingly with more to come as she continues to get over more ground.
Chris Waller has won the Theo Marks Stakes six times and with four mares - Winx, Arcadia Queen, Autumn Glow and Kiku.
Autumn Glow has posted the highest rating of any of those, ahead of Arcadia Queen at 119, Winx at 118 and Kiku at 110.
Winx would then win the Epsom Handicap with a weight of 57kg, running to 122. With 54.5kg, rated 122, Autumn Glow will be rated far ahead of her rivals and everything that she's done late on the clock suggests a mile will only see further improvement.
I'd still love to see her in the Cox Plate but that seems unlikely with the Golden Eagle there, but regardless, she's now put up a Group One rating to match her Group One profile.
