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Staking Strategy – Launceston, Friday 3 October

The 25/26 Launceston Night Racing season has arrived with an eight-race card on Friday.

Picture: Getty Images

R1 Welcome Back To Night Racing In Launnie Maiden/class 1, 1600m
Don't Give Up (1) hasn't had much go right this preparation. He was slow out in Devonport and had to circle the field. His form looks superior and should be the one to beat if he jumps with them. OPENSEA (2) relished the speed being clapped on last Sunday to win by a space. He lacks a turn of foot, but is honest, and all five prior Tassie runs have been in Devonport. TIZSA NICE DROP (7) disappointed two back as favourite, then relished a quiet ride to win going away. This race has more depth, but she had some excuses back here in early August. SKELMORLIE (8) may not have the gate speed to use the rails draw, but placing in eight of 14 is decent form for this. OUR INDULGENCE (3) has form around the toppy, and the drop back in distance likely wasn't ideal last week.

Staking Strategy: Don't Give Up is the best horse in the race, and the price is about right. Tizsa Nice Drop should get a good run from the draw and for me represents a decent value play. 1 unit to win on Don't Give Up (4) and Tizsa Nice Drop (7)
 

R2 Ladbrokes Spring Hosted Pots Maiden, 1400m
Who's In Dev (8) is the likely favourite off two Devonport placings where the winners appear to have some upside. Ideally drawn, she'll be up near the pace and would get her chance from there. I'M A MACHINE (1) has settled well back in both starts but caught the eye with how he's hit the line. Tricky draw here. Stablemates ALPINE COWGIRL (6) and STRIDING BAY (4) found dead ends trying to get through the field in Devonport and look suited up in trip on the grass. ZIGGY PLAYS GUITAR (5) brings a solid SP profile from Victoria, but didn't appear to have a lot of excuses in recent runs. Darmanin's booking may be a lead for punters, as will the market.

Staking Strategy: Who's in Dev, I'll have to be around at the short odds, while acknowledging she's the obvious favourite. Striding Bay is my best value play on the card. Complete forgive in Devonport, I think he can settle closer to the speed here, and I have him much shorter than the market. I'm A Machine has been a black booker off both runs to date. 2 units each-way on Striding Bay (4). 1 unit to win on I'm A Machine (1)


R3 Salters Hire Maiden, 1100m
Celtic Rose (4) resumes with blinkers off and a pair of trial wins leading in. She's placed at all four starts in Launceston, starting towards the head of the market in most of them. THE TRINE (2) chased her home in a recent trial. She ran well at big odds on debut and compromised her race as favourite in her second start by being slowly away. Inside gates are generally advantaged from this starting point, which will aid LA ZAMPA (1), who was solid in a fast race last Sunday.  NOVALARGO (5) had market support on debut and ran well, but I query the strength of that race, and she's drawn wide. Look for any market lead on ZOE OF ROME (8) for the new stable, and CAN'T CATCH CHILLI (6) is part of a strong 2yo crop where the form keeps stacking up.


Staking Strategy: Good betting race with four of the seven runners <$5 on race morning. I like the setup for Celtic Rose. Two nice trials, ideal draw for the in-form Erica Byrne Burke. I find it hard not to see her running well. 3 units to win on Celtic Rose (4)

R4 Ladbrokes Supporting Roct Class 1 Hcp, 1100m
Crack The Shutters (2) earned her place among the state's best 2yos last season and was the quickest of 14 trial winners here last week. She's the class runner, but she'll be short, and wide gates are notoriously sticky from the 1100m. PRINCE OF KHATUN (5) was backed as if unbeatable first-up, and the market was right. She did have some favours there, but won with conviction and maps well. ANTHEIA (7) has placed at all three runs here and was solid in class 2 company last time out. LADY FERN (8) has raced without a lot of luck in her career, particularly at this track, but if she can land forward as she did in her trial, the wins will arrive more frequently.


Staking Strategy: Crack the Shutters trialled super, and looks set to further frank what looks outstanding 2yo form of last season. Wide gate and 58.5kg are deterrents, but in turn are likely keeping the price somewhere near even money. If the fav has bad luck, I find it easy to make a case for Antheia and Lady Fern running good races. 3 units to win on Crack the Shutters (2). 1 unit to win on Antheia (7) and Lady Fern (8)

R5 Congrats Rob Schaeche, Owners Award Recipient Tasracing Class 3 Hcp, 1400m
Kakia (2) has returned with two placings in similar company, the latest behind Go Jeanie, who has subsequently won again. He maps to land in the right spot. Two of the three wins for GEE GEES ME BOY (4) have been first-up, and he wasn't knocked about in a recent trial. Drawn awkwardly. Both runs in the state for ONLY OLD ONCE (1) have had merit, and the claim here for Jabez Johnstone looks handy dropping back from a class 4. NIGHT ACTION (5) hasn't run up to the market this campaign but is drawn to advantage. MILES 'N' MILES (3) could run a cheeky race fresh after winning a trial here last week.

Staking Strategy: Kakia picks himself as the horse in consistent form and is likely to land in the right spot. Only Old Once I've liked both runs in Devonport and out to 1400m should suit. How big a start she gives away could determine her fate. 1 unit to win on Kakia (2) and Only Old Once (1)
 

R6 Join Racehorse Owners Club Tasmania Bm72 Hcp, 1100m
The talented Rubble 'N' Fudd (3) resumes with connections hoping the issues that interrupted last prep are behind him. He draws to stalk the speed and show he's back near his peak. THOROS OF MYR (4) hasn't raced on the grass since July 2023. He'll run them along and will appreciate some weight off his back. Stablemate CHEROKEE DANCER (5) won two in a week in Devonport. She's only won 1/12 at the track, but will be in the mix if she can get an economical run from the draw. FURNEAUX (1) draws well and won at a short price in similar company last start. Terry Evans will be familiar with the family of THISISMYTURF (7), who arrives from Tom Dabernig. He's been up a while, but look for any obvious market push.

Staking Strategy: Rubble 'N' Fudd has always carried a spruik, and let's hope he's somewhere near his best. He should get the cart behind the leader, Thoros of Myr, and have his chance if that happens. Having done the form for an 'up and in' Launceston track, I'll be sending them both as winners. 3 units to win on Rubble 'N' Fudd (3). 1 unit to win on Thoros of Myr (4)


R7 Roct Supporting Tassie Racehorse Owners Bm72 Hcp, 1400m
Sh'Bourne Midnight (3) has won five of 12 and is now on the cusp of open class. He rounded them up in a trial last week and may need to do similar here from a wide draw. THE SPIRIT OF ZERO (4) was given the race on protest last time when LOVIN' BEV (6) was first across the line. A return to Launceston certainly suits Lovin' Bev, who races best here, while The Spirit of Zero has been excellent in both runs back. VERBANO (9) has been plain in her past couple and will need swoopers to have their chance. She gets good weight relief from her last start, as does ETHICAL DILEMMA (8). The best of FIGHTING FLOYD (7) is in the mix, but it's been a long time since he showed that at this track.

Staking Strategy: This market has swung on its head, and I'm in agreement. Sh'bourne Midnight has drifted from early favouritism, replaced by Lovin' Bev, who will be rolling up on speed, and she's repeatedly proven hard to catch in Launceston when that happens. 4 units to win on Lovin' Bev (6)


R8 Become A Racehorse Owner And Reap The Rewards! Class 2 Hcp, 1200m
Uncle's Tip (4) hasn't done a lot wrong in her brief career, often encountering bad luck in many of her defeats. Trialled behind Rubble 'N' Fudd without being pushed, and that form can be franked earlier. MASTRETTA (3) draws wide, so she's a watch on how the track is playing. She had no luck from a similar alley on Cup Day earlier in the year. WITHIN SIGHT (6) lost form late in her prep last campaign, but was good early, including a win over Mastretta at a similar time last year. RARE ORO (7) landed some good bets in Hobart and has been freshened since then. Hard to line up that form, given she missed the carpet stretch and hasn't raced here previously. TURF PUZZLE (8) draws well and has a light weight. Better suited to the grass. GEEGEEHAILSTORM (5) closed well in her trial and is another that will likely be reliant on an ability to make ground away from the inside.

Staking Strategy: Arguably, the hardest race of the night is the last. Awkward draws for the two main hopes, but any pattern will be known by this time of the night. Happy to have a couple of small e/w plays on Within Sight and Rare Oro, who map favourably with a clean getaway. 1 unit each-way on Within Sight (6) and Rare Oro (7)


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