Scott Embry provides his Runner by Runner for the Northerly Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, 7th December 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
1. Numerian (59kg)
Trainer: Neasham & Archibald
Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter
Barrier: 9
Former international who headed to Australian shores in 2022 and picked up wins in the Gosford Cup (Listed 2080m, 2022) and Q22 (WFA 2200, 2022). Made his way across to Western Australia last year and attacked the Van Heemst Stakes and the Perth Cup, and this year Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald begin his campaign a run earlier in the Northerly. He trialled three times in NSW leading into his fresh run in the Group 3 Craven Plate (WFA 1800) won by Lindermann and finished 2L behind key rival Democracy Manifest. Like 2023 the Van Heemst is his race with the majority of these having far more zip than him over the 1800. Would need a horse like Marocchino to turn it into a gruelling test and just don't think that galloper is going well enough to justify breaking the field open.
2. Attrition (59kg)
Trainer: Mitchell Freedman
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Barrier: 5
Ran second in an Australian Guineas in 2023 behind Legarto and only six months later he won his first Group One in the Toorak Handicap (1600m) when beating Antino (and big names like Pride Of Jenni, Amelia's Jewel, Here To Shock). Since that point he has raced like the 1800m is his sweet spot, winning the Group Two Hill Stakes at Rosehill (WFA), and most recently running fourth in the Five Diamonds at Listed Level over 1800m behind Pericles when carrying 59kg. He is suited at WFA and the Northerly profiles very similarly to a Hill Stakes but for a horse who won a 1000m trial in October and an 850m jump out in September his recent trial under Joey Azzopardi will probably leave a few querying the preparation and whether this was an after thought at the end of the campaign?
3. Bustler (59kg)
Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Brad Parnham
Barrier: 3
From a 2-year-old winner, through to a Fairetha Stakes and a runner up performance in the WA Guineas to a Belmont Sprint win as a 3 year old and then onto Group One Glory in the 2023 Railway Stakes, there's always going to be a case to be made for Bustler in these local features. Fast finishing second at WFA in the Lee Steere (1400) behind Casino Seventeen and then while finishing out of the top 10 he was still only 3.5L off Port Lockroy in the 2024 Railway. Ran fourth in the Northerly last year behind Dom To Shoot, Zaaki and Zipaway and if he can repeat that type of performance he's capable of bouncing back into the top half. Brad Parnham jumps on for the first time but that still means first choice rider Steven Parnham has going with Zipaway ahead of him (again).
4. Casino Seventeen (59kg)
Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Barrier: 17
November 2022 – m72 rater, December 2024 – m110. He has enjoyed an incredible WA career that boasts a stacked trophy cabinet housing a Bunbury, Pinjarra Cup and Perth Cup as well as a Lee Steere Stakes after zapping Northerly Stakes rivals Bustler, Zipaway and Let's Galahvant. He went into the Railway Stakes as a $16 chance and that was with William Pike in the saddle, he now heads to a WFA 1800m and understandably Willie goes with the stablemate (and history) and sides up with the 3 year old filly at 50kg. He'll balloon in price over the coming days and will need the right run in transit (like a lot of the older WA horses) to go with the interstate invaders and the lightly weighted and highly progressive filly.
5. Light Infantry Man (59kg)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Barrier: 15
Took a while to hit his straps in Australia and it wasn't until the Crystal Mile three starts back that he begun to build into some form. He was completely luckless in that Group Two mile when skittled a long way from home in a messy race and then managed to pick himself up at his next outing winning the Chester Manifold by a dominant 2.3L margin. With JMac in the saddle he went around a popular favourite in the Railway Stakes and just didn't get the right run at all. Barrier 1 was always a concern in the Railway, because for a horse with only moderate gate speed he was going to need to weave a passage in what has historically been a momentum race won on the point of the home corner. He was better than it looks and is Group One Placed over 1850m internationally. Quickly forgotten in the market.
6. Marocchino (59kg)
Trainer: Lou Luciani
Jockey: Jason Whiting
Barrier: 13
Just get the feeling that Lou Luciani has been chasing his tail the whole way through this preparation. Nominated, accepted and scratched from the Crawford Stakes (19 October). Resumed over 1000m in the Prince Of Wales when finishing last beaten nearly 9L. Again nominated, accepted and scratched from the RJ Peters Stakes a fortnight later before contesting the Carbine Club Stakes instead on Railway Day beaten nearly 5L after leading and fading. This time last year he led and gave plenty of cheek at 30-1 in the Northerly when finishing only 2.6L off Dom To Shoot and he is an Ascot 1800m specialist who may well get the conditions to suit (30+ degrees, Easterly breeze = leaders) but this all seems rushed and he's racing a few lengths below his best.
7. Democracy Manifest (59kg)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Barrier: 2
Group Three winner over 1500m in September 2023 and Group Two winner over 1500m in March 2024 who attacks the 2024 Northerly Stakes fifth-up. First-up beaten 4L Joliestar, second-up beaten 5L Royal Patronage, third-up beaten 4L Ceolwulf and Tom Kitten in the Episom (1600m, Group One Handicap) and fourth-up he finished on the heels of Lindermann in the Group 3 Craven Plate (1800m WFA) 2L clear of Numerian. He, like Light Infantry Man, was one of the replay runs of Railway Stakes when unable to get clear and build momentum at any stage in the home straight. On straightening he's beside Super Smink – she goes inside and bursts through, he goes outside and gets held up. 1800m WFA is his go and Mark Zahra returns a fortnight later seeking redemption. Back markers without much versatility at Ascot – always a risky betting proposition.
8. Let's Galahvant (59kg)
Trainer: Daniel & Ben Pearce
Jockey: Shaun McGruddy
Barrier: 14
Is getting better with age? The $10,000 yearling purchase continues to go from strength to strength. There was a time I thought a Westspeed Platinum win was his ceiling – wrong, then a 72+ surely it – nope, a Hannans? – think again, he's gone on to win a WFA Strickland Stakes at Belmont Park and then last time out in the Railway Stakes he's reeled off the second fastest L600 to rattle home into fifth beaten under 1.5L at Group One level. Remarkable animal who continues to raise the bar and considering he's WFA proven, distance proven and always running above market expectation he could be a genuine top 4 contender at juicy odds. He ran the fastest L200 in the Railway at 11.00s and was off the minimum (54.5kg). Some run.
9. Mojo Rhythm (59kg)
Trainer: Mitchell Pateman
Jockey: Patrick Carbery
Barrier: 10
Ran out of his skin in the Railway all things considered. We won't reopen fresh wounds by detailing what occurred pre-race, but in a far from ideal circumstance he made his own way to the barriers where Patrick Carbery jumped aboard and gave Mitch Pateman and his connections a fleeting moment on straightening where it looked like he was about to sprint past them. He's one of the horses who go from 53kg in a handicap to 59kg at WFA and comparing 2023 to 2024 you would have to say he's one of the roughies in the Northerly. Last year he ran fifth in the Railway beaten 2.3L and then twelfth in the Northerly beaten 4.3L. It's the massive rise in weight and the fact he's never won beyond 1600m that are cause for concern.
10. River Rubicon (59kg)
Trainer: Steve Wolfe
Jockey: Joseph Azzopardi
Barrier: 12
Has worked his way through ratings grade and posted his first Black Type success in last season's Pinjarra Classic and since then his best run was in the Hannans Handicap when third behind Vast Art and Sentimental Hero. He's taken the alternate pathway to the Northerly Stakes through the Northam Cup (beaten 4L), Lee Steere Stakes (beaten 3L) and the Carbine Club (beaten nearly 6L). Same preparation in 2023 where he went a fortnight from the Carbine Club into the Northerly and finished eighth at 200-1. Same profile, same price point. Triple figures.
11. Currimundi (59kg)
Trainer: Steve Wolfe
Jockey: Jordan Turner
Barrier: 18
The second Steve Wolfe galloper who is thrown in the deep end as the winner of an Albany Cup and a Diggers Cup. He beat home stablemate River Rubicon by 3.5L in the Northam Cup three starts back and since then has progressed in distance to the Luckygray (1800) when beaten 2.7L by Diamond Scene and then to the AJ Scahill Cup (2100) when beaten 5.6L by Sentimental Hero. He's a m93 rater who would have been better suited to the G.A Towton Cup on the same day and like his stablemate River Rubicon is nominated for the Perth Cup on January 1. There's little between the stablemates and they'll both jump 150-1+.
12. Zipaway (58.5kg)
Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Steven Parnham
Barrier: 4
2023 WA Guineas winner who with one more bound goes very close to winning the Northerly Stakes last year. Was touted by many (most) as the best of the local chances in the Railway Stakes and probably ran a length or two below expectation. Steve Parnham gave him the perfect run in transit (as he tends to do #GroupOneStevie) and at the 600 when he pulled out and around Trix Of The Trade it looked like he was going to loom into the race. That didn't eventuate and I don't like the fact that a horse like Triple Missile ran past him in the concluding stages, but trusting in Hall of Fame trainer Neville Parnham to get him back and the fact he's made a gear change and reinstated the blinkers could be telling. He has tactical versatility and with the shades could bounce out and lob 1×1.
13. Admiration Express (57kg)
Trainer: Jason Miller
Jockey: Lucy Fiore
Barrier: 11
Has been a marvellous mare for the Miller family and their connections, dating back to her 3 year old fillies days when breaking her maiden in the Champion Fillies before winning the Ascot 1000 Guineas three months later. Lost her way a little bit as a 4 year old mare but bounced back to the winner's circle in the Coolgardie Cup at Kalgoorlie in September. Since then she's gone to a Boulder Cup, an Asian Beau and an RJ Peters. The shades went back on in the Peters and she was an improved performance by beaten margins, but Jason Miller takes them straight back off and ultimately, she's still been beaten 2L behind Mojo Rhythm and if he's going to go around at 50-1 then logic says she'll be jumping 100-1. First time in her life to WFA and her recent runs just don't read up as Northerly Stakes form.
14. Super Smink (56.5kg)
Trainer: Daniel Morton
Jockey: Chris Parnham
Barrier: 6
Is absolutely flying again. Encouraging return in the Black Hart Bart Stakes (hardly a form reference race though, third behind Mood Swings and Phanta), really started to announce herself in the Eurythmic Stakes when bursting through late to split Comfort Me and Magnificent Andy and then won the Asian Beau which just confirmed that she was back to her best. Drew barrier 18 on the Tuesday evening leading into the Railway and did a massive job to finish third behind Port Lockroy and Comfort Me which took her career prizemoney earnings past the $1,000,000 mark. First time to 1800m is the unknown but given she's run the fastest L800, L600, L400 and was 0.02s off the fastest L200 it's hard to knock her. Drawn to get a soft run with cover – she's a massive chance in the Northerly.
15. Socks Nation (56.5kg)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Declan Bates
Barrier: 8
Fingers crossed the former Queensland Oaks winner stays around for the Van Heemst, a 2100m WFA that in 2024 could contain up to six horses m100+ rated horses. Her run behind Atishu and Amelia's Jewel beating home Alesphina in the Empire Rose Stakes was excellent and then she had to work far too hard early in the Railway Stakes. Drew in the carpark, was caught deep without cover for the first half of the race until finally lobbing outside Belclaire at the 800m and as soon as she got there the horses behind her started to peel and make their runs. She should improve here and then be peaking in the Van Heemst. She maps to get the right run close handy and could be the first to pull the trigger and attack Marocchino.
16. Storyville (50kg)
Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: William Pike
Barrier: 1
X-Factor – yes. Grant & Alana Williams – yes. William Pike – yes. 50kg – yes. Jumps favourite? Yes?. 2015 Perfect Reflection – 3 year old filly, 2018 Arcadia Queen – 3 year old filly, 2019 Kay Cee – 3 year old filly, 2022 Amelia's Jewel – 3 year old filly. No doubt there will be many punters out there thinking 'if this was 4/5 years ago and she was wearing cerise and white she would be $2.50 off what she's produced'. She was luckless in the Burgess Queen, she was a brilliant last to first winner of the Champion Fillies and then she backed it up 7 days later to beat the highly touted boys in the WA Guineas. The first 1000m of the Champion Fillies was 7.5L slower than average, the first 1000m of the WA Guineas was 9L faster than average – it doesn't seem to matter to her how the speed of the race unfolds, she's got a turn of foot and a toughness that makes her really attractive.
SELECTION: STORYVILLE/SUPER SMINK
Think the girls can fly the flag for WA and keep one of the Group One trophies in the State after Port Lockroy and Overpass made it 2 – 0 to the East Coast. Storyville is looking to add her name to a brilliant list of 3 year old fillies to win this race and Grant & Alana Williams have a wonderful record in the race, having prepared four of the last nine winners of the race and Willie Pike has undertaken the unenviable task of shedding weight to ride her at 50kg. Super Smink was visually and sectionally brilliant in the Railway and maps to get the right run saved up for one last crack at them.
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