Analysis and suggested bets for Caulfield Heath on Saturday.
Quite a few short priced favourites on Saturday, with four horses priced around the even money mark or shorter. All are deserving of favouritism but the best of them looks to be Sneaky Sunrise in Race 2.
It looks a very thin benchmark 84 race there and she was back to something like her best winning last time at Ballarat, running to a RAS rating of 102.
The run prior in a rich Inglis Bracelet was fine in a dash home and while she's never run over further than a mile, she's by The Autumn Sun and I've always thought she'd get over 2000m, so the 1800m now looks ideal.
There's nothing to this with the main market danger Oraqua coming back in trip off a Warrnambool benchmark 66 win, nothing of which suggested there was a huge amount more to come. Marked Sneaky Sunrise $1.70 and the even money around looks a fair bet.
Also in the market, but a touch bigger at around 6/4 is Beast Mode in Race 9. He's been a revelation since the blinkers went on, winning in fast time at Moonee Valley twice in a row.
He stepped up to 1100m in the Village Stakes last time and tried hard but just got tired the last bit in a better race than this.
Freshened, back to 1000m, he'll lead, run along and should just be too fast for his rivals.
Finally, Seafall in Race 3 can be a sharp improver second up. The fresh run at Ballarat, his first for the Hayes yard (ex Chris Waller) was much better than it looked on paper when beaten five lengths.
They went ridiculously slow in front and his effort from near last was actually quite good. His Sydney form last time in has him as one of the hardest to beat here and getting to a mile will suit much better.
This isn't the strongest race and with the added fitness and trip, he can run a big race at the each way quote.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 2 #6 Sneaky Sunrise at $2.00
Also backing: Race 9 #1 Beast Mode at $2.50
Each-way play: Race 3 #5 Seafall at $8.50