We look back on a couple of Winter Finals Day races and ratings.
Buccleuch – Taj Rossi Final
A visually impressive win from Buccleuch who demolished his rivals with 59kg in the Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m).
This was won in a much slower time figure than his win over 1420m two starts back, and against lower rated opposition, which the market cottoned onto, heavily supported into $1.45 despite the weight impost.
Objectively, the win may need to be tempered a touch given the horses in behind. Bermondsey finished second and held a previous peak rating of 90 which was on debut, coming off a seventh placing in a Pakenham Synthetic maiden.
It results in a RAS rating of 103 for Buccleuch, up from 100 the start prior. A bit of juice could be added to that for the weight and also the ease with which he put them away.
Regardless, it stacks up quite well for Taj Rossi winners, matching the 103 rating that Cherry Tortoni (in the same stable and colours) ran to win in 2020.
Only Royal Symphony (110) has rated higher to win the race in the past ten years, comfortably out-rating the likes of Jenni's Meadow (101), Dolphin Skin (97) and Quang Tri (96) in recent years.
The post-race commentary from the stable was that he may have a light Spring and be targeted at the Autumn, but it's not unrealistic to think he's a Group horse.
Bridal Waltz – Creswick Stakes
Another heavily supported favourite but this time the punters missed, with She's An Artist ($1.30) going under and Bridal Waltz ($13) turning the tables from last start.
Let's break that down, with judgement quick to fly both ways about the favourite, people seemingly just trying to justify their pre-race opinions post-race.
Horses don't run a rating of 108 in an equally strong time figure at their second start in a Winter three-year-old handicap if they don't have plenty of ability, which is what She's An Artist did.
Does that mean she should've started $1.30 here? Perhaps not, but I don't think many could make a case that she shouldn't at least have been in the red. Her opening price (around $1.65) said she'd win around 60% of the time and lose 40%.
Even her eventual $1.30 SP has her losing 1 in 4. On the flip side, a $4 chance wins 1 in 4, and I daresay you'd be hard pressed to find a card of racing that didn't feature a winner paying $4 or better.
There could be any number of reasons for She's An Artist being beaten, but the primary one is likely that she's an inexperienced horse at her third start where volatility, both positive and negative, is to be expected.
A regression of five pounds down to 103 is hardly the end of the world, and I don't think anyone is walking away from Saturday saying she's 'flopped'. I'd reckon that everyone would still be picking her to take home over anything else in the field.
Was Group 1 chat after her second start premature? Maybe (probably). The bid for people to one-up someone else's hot take ran rampant, and has now maybe tempered to what it should've been after her win- she's a very talented filly who is a good chance to measure up in Group class races with natural improvement.
Indeed, her 108 rating two back would've won this race, with Bridal Waltz only needing to run 106 on the RAS scale to win- typical of a Creswick winner.
That list is topped by Nature Strip at 112 from Passive Aggressive at 110, then Renosu and Gytrash, who both went 108 and prove that trajectories can change quickly.
