We look back at all the ratings and analysis from Caulfield Cup & Everest day.
Caulfield Cup
Half Yours justified heavy market support to win the Caulfield Cup under a brilliant ride from Jamie Melham.
The race worked out well considering the potentially sticky inside gate with Adelaide River racing keenly and bolting out in front which strung out the field and allowed her smooth passage through, setting up a solid overall time.
He's run to a new peak RAS rating of 120, up from 118 in the Turnbull and 116 in the Naturalism, backed up by a time rating of 120, with the late strength suggesting he might even have a couple of pounds more to offer.
Using the RAS scale, a rating of 120 is okay for a Caulfield Cup. Four horses have rated below 120 this century to win the race including Durston at 118 in 2022, while comparisons to Incentivise are well off – he ran 126 while Without A Fight went 124.
Duke De Sessa last year came in at 121, as did Verry Elleegant in 2020.
At the weights on the Timeform scale, Half Yours (114) is the second-lowest Caulfield Cup winner this century with only Durston (110) lower.
In terms of a Melbourne Cup, there were some good trials in behind, none more so than Valiant King, who was the fastest in every sectional home. He's now come through two strongly run races and won't have any better profile going to 3200m.
Presage Nocturne also appreciated the strong gallop and will be better at two miles, while I'd be somewhat forgiving of Meydaan who was wide without cover throughout, losing his spot around the turn but just picking up again through the line, running the fifth-fastest last 200m.
Half Yours has to have some chance if they go to the Melbourne Cup but I think this was his race, and with a 2kg penalty, I'd be following Valiant King and Meydaan to Flemington.
The Everest
The Hong Kong champion Ka Ying Rising came and conquered the mountain in one of the most anticipated races in my time, with so much pre-race drama and discussion on both sides.
People love to talk in absolutes in racing – "he can't win", "he's a moral" and so on, which simply isn't the case- everything has a price and a subsequent probability and that's the challenge of this game.
Ka Ying Rising didn't need to run to his best to win The Everest, but I don't think anyone was forecasting he would run to his peak rating of 132- if he did, he'd have won by another 1-1/2 lengths.
Instead, he's run to 128 which is basically his mean rating if you look at his ratings from his first Group 2 win this time last year. In that time, his lowest rating is 124 so he's right in the middle which was good enough to win fairly comfortably.
It means Tempted runs a new peak of 122, up from 118 in the Run To The Rose, while Jimmysstar matches his 122 peak, ridden positively, while Briasa regressed eight pounds ridden negatively.
128 is the equal highest rating in The Everest, matching Classique Legend in 2020, while Nature Strip, Redzel (in his 2nd) and Yes Yes Yes all went 126. Think About It and Giga Kick came in at 125, while the lowest winning rating was Bella Nipotina last year at 123.
Caulfield Classic & Ethereal Stakes
Two more slowly run Derby and Oaks lead ups, especially for the boys with just 1 length separating the first five. This gives us very little guide heading towards a Derby and really all it has done is enhanced Observer's chances in my eyes.
In a lowly time rating of 76, Autumn Mystery has run to 105 on the RAS scale which is below average for the Caulfield Classic, matching Mr Maestro in 2022 and one pound ahead of Kingofwallstreet last year.
In the fillies' division, Spicy Lu was given a great ride by Nash Rawiller to win the Ethereal Stakes, running 1.22 seconds (around seven lengths) faster than the boys overall, while still being fairly sedate.
Spicy Lu also runs to 105 which is solid for an Ethereal winner, matching Too Darn Discreet last year. Heading towards an Oaks, I'd be against the first two who have to be genuine queries staying 2500m. After Summer and Classic Gem got home well late and could be improvers.
Gothic Stakes
Tentyris was an impressive winner of the Gothic Stakes, running to a new peak rating of 115, which is the equal highest rating in this race, tying with Heart Of Dreams in 2008 (over 1400m)who went on to win an Australian Guineas and Underwood Stakes.
The time is strong and he's flown home to suggest he could win a Coolmore, the splits saying 118 and even higher is certainly attainable. He and Beiwacht will be 1-2 in the market there. Beiwacht ran 123 in the Golden Rose but it was a huge spike having gone 112 in the Run To The Rose.
My gut feel is Tentyris might be the one to peak in the Coolmore and Beiwacht will regress which has me leaning to Tentyris.
Thousand Guineas
Ole Dancer was given an outstanding ride by Blake Shinn to win the Thousand Guineas, out-toughing race favourite Apocalyptic by sitting on her hammer throughout. They didn't go all that hard but she was just too strong late, running to a RAS rating of 110.
That has Apocalyptic now running 109 in all four starts this time in. Ultra-consistent, but perhaps not the star that a sweep of the princess series would suggest.
While the general consensus is that the Flight Stakes has become the premier fillies mile race in the Spring, the ratings are more equal than that.
In the past ten years, the average winning rating of the Flight Stakes is 112.7 while the Thousand Guineas is 112.1.
In that time, the Guineas winner has out-rated the Flight winner twice and equalled it on four occasions.
There's very little between the two races and this year was the same.
If you stayed up late enough on Saturday, you'd have seen the two best horses in the world race, and win.
Ka Ying Rising has been displaced as Racing & Sports top ranked horse in the world despite winning The Everest with Calandagan posting the highest RAS rating this season in winning the Champions Stakes at Ascot.
In a world class time figure, he's dropped the 129 rated Ombudsman over the final furlong and posted a huge new peak of 133 in the process, with the 129 rated Eclipse & Irish Champion winner Delacroix in fourth.
Calandagan's past three starts now read 131-131-133 to establish himself as the RAS top rated, and top ranked, horse in the world.
The 131 rated dirt monster Sovereignty and the 131 rated Arc winner Daryz sit 3rd and 4th in the RAS Global Rankings with Via Sistina just clinging on to a top 15 spot, the only Australian trained runner on the list, which can be seen on our Ratings & Analysis page here.
