The great Adam Blencowe returns to the Melbourne Mail; ready to bring his erudite mind and much lauded judgement back to the page with the powerful prose that made his stellar reputation.
Let's open with the good stuff; a 10/1 winner in the form of Sirileo Miss who hadn't given her true running in five runs across 20 months before turning things around last time and now heads to the Eclipse with a terrific winning chance.
Five 'off runs' makes the off rating feel like a pattern; the rule rather than the exception. But Sirileo Miss turned things back to her true norm at Flemington, stretching Hinged, a good Matriarch winner, and posting a RAS Rating that she has only bettered twice in her nine-win (four times at Group level) career.
Perhaps more importantly than that, it was a rating that would have bettered all bar one winner of the Eclipse over the past decade (the great So Si Bon) and, perhaps more importantly again, it is a figure that, repeated, would leave all bar a few (literally three) of this year's line-up needing a career best to beat her.
Few runners (including Sirileo Miss it must be said) in this line up are obvious candidates for career best efforts. Poison Chalice has the profile that lends itself best to that idea, and he is close enough to the mark to be feared, while of the trio with ratings to match SM, it is New Energy who heads Apulia on the shortlist.
New Energy brings the best last start rating to the race having held up well in the Champions Mile last time. The same could be said of his equally non-threatening but game-enough-in-the-scenario run in the King Charles prior. New Energy has slipped out to 17 runs across 1161 days since making a winning debut at the Curragh but he has put up several smart pieces of form on either side of the equator in that time. His recent efforts have been good but he has a better one to his name back in the UK where he stretched an in-the-zone Kinross on soft ground over seven furlongs at Doncaster.
New Energy is better described as a G1 placegetter (he ran second in the Irish Guineas with the Caulfied Cup 1-2, Duke De Sessa-Buckaroo, in behind) than as a maiden winner and those old, strong peaks add spice to the good new ones, but what this really does is highlight the similar case for Sirileo Miss and at bigger odds she is one to play each way.
For one at the sharper end of the market we can again gamble on a return to older peaks with Tuvalu in the Heffernan standing out under the weight-for-age conditions.
Tuvalu hasn't had much recent racing (seen just twice so far in 2024) and so he can be excused for needing to remove the rust in the Rupert Clarke where he stepped slow, went back to last, and never threatened, but he stayed past plenty in a pleasing return that saw him post the best last start rating in the field here - and surely he could only improve.
Arkansaw Kid is the one with the ratings profile to press him but (with some excuses mind) he has lost his rhythm in his past couple and runs deep into the spring now and so Tuvalu (three years his senior) fronts up with the fresher legs; fresher legs that don't mind softer ground.
Conditions are set to be ideal for Tuvalu following recent rain. A Winter Championship winner who has won twice at the Bool clearly doesn't mind getting the toe into the ground and while the going was listed as 'good' when resuming it raced slower than that which clearly suited given his strong finish.
That strong finish should come from a better position this time. There is good pace engaged for Tuvalu to stalk, and stalk he should under man of the moment Ethan Brown. Prices around $2.50 seem fair game for one with much in his favour.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 9 #1 Tuvalu @ $2.50
Each Way Play: Race 7 #7 Sirileo Miss @ $11.00
